On Saturday, October 25, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, Arab Emirates, Umar Nurmagomedov will go head-to-head with Mario Bautista in an 3-round bantamweight showdown. Find out how to watch the fight live.

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista will square off this weekend (Sat., Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates for UFC 321.

It’s easy to see both sides of the Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili conflict. On one hand, Nurmagomedov did take advantage of his family name to rise up the ladder quickly and score big opportunities. On the flip side, he is one of the very best Bantamweights in the world, and he definitely gave Dvalishvili more trouble than most other challengers. The result is we have a clearly elite fighter who hasn’t faced that many really good opponents. Bautista, conversely, has taken the long road to the top. He’s won eight in a row inside the Octagon against increasingly tough opposition, and this is his chance to really lockdown a title shot.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Betting Odds
Umar Nurmagomedov victory: -650

Umar Nurmagomedov via TKO/KO/DQ: +800

Umar Nurmagomedov via submission: +375

Umar Nurmagomedov via decision: -170

Mario Bautista victory: +450

Mario Bautista via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000

Mario Bautista via submission: +5000

Mario Bautista via decision: +750

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Nurmagomedov Wins
Nurmagomedov is very high-level in all facets of the game. On the feet, he’s a powerful kicker with good movement who likes to time opponents with counter combinations. As one would expect, the timing on his takedowns and transitional wrestling are excellent. On the floor, he’s really good at taking the back and finding the strangle.

This is a matchup of very well-rounded Bantamweights, but Nurmagomedov seems to have small edges in all areas. He’s just a little bit sharper on the feet and has more depth to his wrestling attack. Both men are slick once on the canvas, but Nurmagomedov is more likely to be in top position and thus winning those exchanges as well.

Nurmagomedov will have to find success both on the feet and the canvas to win here, and it’s likely to come down to how well he fights off the back foot. Bautista likes to press, and Nurmagomedov likes to work the outside. As the more mobile outside fighter, Nurmagomedov has to make sure his counters are landing with enough snap that the judges are aware who’s actually winning exchanges. Sometimes, the optics make it tricky for the matador to win close rounds.

Fortunately, takedowns help sway the judges as well. A well-timed shot and minute or two of top control will easily turn an otherwise competitive round of kickboxing into a convincing 10-9 scorecard.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Live
Mario Bautista vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Mario Bautista vs Umar Nurmagomedov Live
Nurmagomedov vs Bautista
Nurmagomedov vs Bautista Live
Bautista vs Nurmagomedov
Bautista vs Nurmagomedov Live